Mental health prescribing - England
Antidepressant prescribing has grown 19% since 2021
but cost has fallen 37%.
Four years of NHS Prescription Cost Analysis data, distilled to the headline numbers a public health officer needs in the first thirty seconds.
Items, latest month
4-yr volume change
Cost, latest month
4-yr cost change
Volume vs cost over time
Items prescribed nationally, with total NHS cost on a separate axis.
What's the story?
More patients are getting antidepressants, but the NHS is paying significantly less per script. The driver is the shift from branded drugs (such as Cymbalta or Cipralex) to cheap generic equivalents, which fell out of patent protection during this period.
Top antidepressants over the four-year period
Hover or tap a line to focus.
Regional variation
Where is mental health demand growing fastest?
Pick a region to compare its prescribing trend against the national average. Differences in growth rate tell us where mental health services are most strained.
Regional comparison
Click a region chip to highlight.
Growth ranking
| Region | Jan 2021 | Oct 2024 | Growth |
|---|
December 2024 deep-dive
One month, 27 drugs, £16.6 million.
A close look at the most recent month for which we have a fully detailed drug-level breakdown across all 42 Integrated Care Boards.
Total items
Total cost
Most prescribed
Sertraline
Most expensive
Venlafaxine
Volume vs cost ranking
Same drugs, ranked two ways. The gap between volume rank and cost rank reveals which medicines are expensive per dose.
| # | Drug | Items | Cost | £ / item |
|---|
Cost by region
Three insights for commissioners
1. Sertraline dominates volume (27% of all items) but is cheap per dose, accounting for 21% of cost.
2. Venlafaxine is the cost outlier: 6th in volume but 1st in cost. It is worth understanding why the per-item price is so high.
3. The Midlands has the highest absolute spend (£3.25M), reflecting both higher demand and a larger population base.
2. Venlafaxine is the cost outlier: 6th in volume but 1st in cost. It is worth understanding why the per-item price is so high.
3. The Midlands has the highest absolute spend (£3.25M), reflecting both higher demand and a larger population base.
Predictive view
Looking six months ahead.
A simple linear-trend-plus-seasonality model fitted to 46 months of history. Useful for capacity planning, not for clinical decisions.
Model R²
Trend slope
Apr 2025 forecast
YoY change
Six-month forecast
Solid line: actual. Dashed line: model prediction with ±5% band.
How is this calculated?
Linear regression on a time index plus eleven monthly dummy variables to capture seasonality. Fits 82% of the variance in items but only 34% of the variance in cost — cost is much more volatile because it is driven by patent expiries and procurement decisions rather than smooth demand.
Methodology and provenance
About PrescribeIQ.
Built as a prototype dashboard for the NHS DigData Step Up Career Challenge. Combines one month of detailed Excel data with four years of longitudinal Python analysis.
Data sources
- Snapshot: Step Up Excel Data, December 2024 (1,120 rows, 27 drugs, 42 ICBs)
- Trend: NHS BSA PCA Regional Summary, Jan 2021 to Oct 2024 (322 rows)
- Drug detail: NHS BSA PCA Regional + Drug Summary (9,455 rows)
- Provenance: NHSBSA Open Data Portal, official statistic
Methods
- Aggregation: SUMIF / SUMIFS in Excel, groupby in pandas
- Forecast: Linear regression with monthly dummies
- Validation: Dec 2024 forecast was within 1.3% of actual
- Charts: Chart.js in this app, matplotlib for static reports
Limitations
- Item counts not normalised by population size
- "UNIDENTIFIED" region grouped with England-level totals
- Cost reflects drug only, excludes dispensing fees
- Forecast is a trend model, not a causal one
Next iterations
- Per-capita normalisation using ONS regional populations
- Drug-level forecasting, not just national
- Drill-through to ICB level on the regional map
- SARIMA model for stronger forecast intervals